NFL Draft – 1st Round Picks – Top 10 – Who Do You Want?

Last week I ran through the NFL Draft 101 with a 3 part series.  With only 10 days from the 1st pick, the Mock Drafts out there are getting updated almost daily.  In this next series, we will cover the 1st Round Picks based on several mock drafts and  information out there.  Today, we will focus on the Top 10 Picks.  Tomorrow, we will do Picks 11-20 and Wednesday, Picks 21-32.

The format here will be to go over Team Needs for each Team, Highest Rated Players and their Traits, and finally, possible scenarios for each pick.  Let’s dig in.

Cleveland Browns – 1st Pick Overall

• Team Needs:  The Browns have only made the post season once (2002) since getting re-established in 1999.  The Browns have struggled with changing administrations and have bungled picks for years.  2 years ago, the Browns traded out of Pick #2 and passed on Carson Wentz at QB, who looked like an MVP last year before getting hurt late in the season.  Last year, Cleveland took Myles Garrett, DE, with the 1st pick and even traded out of a later pick for another team to take Deshaun Watson, who looked great before getting hurt.  So, is this the year they pick a QB at #1.  The Browns need a lot of positions including OT with the retirement of Joe Thomas.  They struggled on defense, too.  QB Tyrod Taylor was picked up in the off season, so they do not NEED a QB, but with 2 picks in the first 4 picks, the Browns will likely address the QB.
• Top Players and Traits:  Best player in the draft is probably Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State, Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame and Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State.  However, at QB, the Browns have been eying either Sam Darnold from USC or Josh Allen from Wyoming.  Darnold has more big games played.  Darnold is more accurate with a career completion percentage of 64.9% in his 2 seasons, but he does fumble quite a bit.  Allen is a prototypical QB – taller, bigger arm, and more athletic, but his completion percentage is poor (56.2%).
• Possible Scenarios:  The Browns will likely just pick their top QB here.  However, they could take one of the best players in the Draft 1st and then take the QB at #4.  Prediction:  Browns will take Sam Darnold, QB, USC.

New York Giants – 2nd Pick Overall

• Team Needs:  The Giants have a new coach, Pat Shurmur, an offensive and QB guru.  So, the pick will likely be an offensive pick.  The offensive line for the Giants has been terrible of late, so a lineman is at the top of the list.  Shurmur used his running backs to a great extent in his time in Minnesota, so a top running back is also a great need given the Giants haven’t had steady production from their backs since Brandon Jacobs.
• Top Players and Traits:  The Top 3 Players will be available if Cleveland takes a QB.  So, given the Giants’ needs, Quenton Nelson, a beastly 6’5″, 329 lbs and bench pressed 225 lbs. 35 times at the combine.  He is the best offensive lineman in the Draft, but not a tackle.  So, the Giants may take Nelson at OG to protect Eli Manning and help the running game.  The other guy is Saquon Barkley who just destroyed the combine as the top RB.  Barkley is 6’0″, 233 lbs. ran a 4.40 40 yard dash and a 41″ vertical.  He is versatile enough to catch passes and even return kicks.
• Possible Scenarios:  Giants have been rumored to pick Barkley or they take the safer pick in Nelson.  The other option for them would be to trade out of the position with a QB needy team like Miami, Buffalo or Arizona.  If Allen gets picked #1 overall, then I would not be shocked if someone jumps up to take Sam Darnold.  Prediction:  Giants trade back and Buffalo comes up to take Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming.

New York Jets – 3rd Pick Overall

• Team Needs:  The Jets already traded up to get to this spot with the Colts from 6 to 3.  The Jets have picked on the defensive side of the ball for the past few drafts, and Coach Todd Bowles needs to win now.  They need a pro-ready QB to take this team from the bottom of this division.
• Top Players and Traits:  Again, you have Quenton Nelson there and Bradley Chubb, but the Jets didn’t jump up to take those guys.  UCLA QB, Josh Rosen, is left on the board right now of the Top 3 QBs.  Rosen is very accurate and been a starter since his freshman year and completing over 60% of his passes.  Rosen shows the best touch of the Top 3 QBs, but the question mark for him is his commitment to football.
• Possible Scenarios:  Jets will take one of the Top 3 guys, whoever is left.  I do think they will take Rosen over Allen, if they had the choice.  I’m not sure about Darnold, but I do not think Darnold will be here at 3.  Prediction:  Jets will take Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA.

Cleveland Browns – 4th Pick Overall

• Team Needs:  The Browns are up again.  Again, they need players on both sides.  Since they took a QB at #1, then they will likely take the best player available here.
• Top Players and Traits:  We still have the best 3 players available – Nelson, Barkley and Chubb.  Chubb is the best pass rusher in this draft.  He is 6’4″, 269 lbs., ran a 4.65 40 yard dash and 4.41 short shuttle.  Chubb was productive in college and should succeed on the next level.
• Possible Scenarios:  The Browns have been rumored to love Barkley, so he is the likely pick here.  The other pick would be Bradley Chubb, who paired with last year’s #1 pick Myles Garrett would be a great duo.  Prediction:  Browns will take Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State.

Denver Broncos – 5th Pick Overall

• Team Needs:  Denver’s offensive line has been just ok of late.  They went Offensive Line last year in the 1st round with Garrett Bolles, but they can reload more there.  The Defense has lost Aquib Talib to Los Angeles at Corner Back.  Plus, the Defense is aging a bit.
• Top Players and Traits:  Nelson and Chubb are available still.  The Broncos could look at a CB like Denzel Ward here, but despite his speed (4.32 40 yard dash), has been labeled as small (5’10”, 191 lbs.).
• Possible Scenarios:  The Broncos were tied to Baker Mayfield earlier in the draft process, but Case Keenum has been signed, so I think they will take a non-QB here of the top players still left with the QBs taken early.  Prediction:  Denver will take Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame. 

Indianapolis Colts – 6th Pick Overall

• Team Needs:  New GM, Chris Ballard was brought on to change things.  He now has his coach, Frank Reich the former Offensive Coordinator of the Champion Philadelphia Eagles, after Josh McDaniels turned down the job.  Andrew Luck may be healthy, but the Colts traded with the Jets, so their interest in QB is not there.  The team needs a lot, but ever since Dwight Freeney moved on and Robert Mathis retired, the Colts have lacked a pass rush.
• Top Players and Traits:  Chubb is still on the board and fits the need.  The Colts could go in the secondary with Ward at CB or Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick a more versatile Safety/Corner hybrid.  However, the Colts took Malik Hooker at Free Safety last year, and the pass rush is probably a higher priority.
• Possible Scenarios:  If Chubb goes to Denver, then I can see the Colts taking Nelson to protect Luck.  Other than that, I see Chubb here.  Prediction:  Colts will take Bradley Chubb, DE, NC State.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7th Pick Overall

• Team Needs:  The Bucs were a disappointment in 2017.  The offense has been the focus for most drafts, and even though the Bucs let RB, Doug Martin walk in free agency, I think the Bucs will look to fortify their defense.  They have high performers on the defensive line with Gerald McCoy.  Lavonte David is a very good linebacker.  They need leadership and playmaking in the secondary, and likely up the middle of the defense.
• Top Players and Traits:  Finally, the top 3 players are off the board and the top 3 QBs.  So, that leaves Ward at CB, but Tampa already has at least 2 undersized CBs.  Minkah Fitzpatrick is definitely a possibility with his ability top play safety and corner.  However, another safety may make sense given the leadership need, Derwin James, a 6’2″, 215 lbs. safety out of Florida State ran 4.47 in the 40 and jumped 40″ in the vertical is a physical presence.  He is still raw, but can make plays.
• Possible Scenarios:  If Saquon somehow fell this far, then the Bucs may take him.  However, if the Draft goes as seen here, then James is the guy.  Prediction:  Bucs will take Derwin James, S, Florida State.

Chicago Bears – 8th Pick Overall

• Team Needs:  The Bears jumped up to get their QB last year.  GM Ryan Pace has worked to get some weapons around Mitchell Trubisky in signing Free Agents – Allen Robinson, WR, Trey Burton at TE and Taylor Gabriel at WR.  So, even though the Defense ranked in the Top 10 in yards against, the Bears did not force turnovers at a high clip.  The Bears do need more help on the Offensive Line with the departure of Josh Sitton at Guard, but I think the defense needs more.
• Top Players and Traits:  If Nelson somehow fell this far, then they should take him to replace Sitton and protect Trubisky.  However, the Bears need more playmakers on defense.  So, that leaves Ward at CB, Fitzpatrick at S/CB or another player who has been linked to the Bears – VA Tech’s Tremaine Edmunds is a tall, 6’5″, 253 lbs. guy who runs 4.54 40 yard dash.  Edmunds is fluid in pass coverage and can blitz on the edge.  Edmunds is more raw than say the shorter, Roquan Smith out of Georgia.  However, his athleticism is appealing.
• Possible Scenarios:  Bears may choose to trade out of this position to pick up more picks lost in the trade up for Trubisky last year, especially if Nelson or Edmunds are off the Board.  Prediction:  Bears will take Tremaine Edmunds, LB, Virginia Tech.

San Francisco 49ers – 9th Pick Overall

• Team Needs:  San Francisco addressed their QB needs last season with the pick up of Jimmy Garapolo from the Patriots.  They did lose RB Carlos Hyde in the off season.  The WR corps of the team is not great, but solid.  The 49ers have drafted all along the defensive line for a few years, and they drafted LB Ruben Foster last year.  Foster has some issues off the field that leave him at risk of a long suspension, so they could look to get another LB this year.  Finally, the SF secondary wasn’t great.
• Top Players and Traits:  The guys left mentioned are Ward at CB, Fitzpatrick at S/CB, so they could go there.  Georgia Linebacker Roquan Smith would make sense if they think Foster is going to miss the season on suspension.  Smith is not very big at 6’1″ and 236 lbs, but he covers the field with his 4.51 40 speed and his tape shows a sideline to sideline tackler who can also cover backs out of the backfield.
• Possible Scenarios:  49ers will likely stay put here and take the defensive player they like the most.  Prediction:  49ers will take Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, Alabama.

Oakland Raiders – 10th Pick Overall

• Team Needs:  Raiders had a down year last year.  After making several comebacks the year before, the team struggled on defense a lot and when QB Derek Carr got hurt mid-season, they could not recover.  Coach Del Rio was fired, and the Silver and Black went back in time for a team legend, Jon Gruden, to take the Raiders to the next level.  Gruden likes smashmouth football and exotic pass plays.  He believes in the “Raider Way” of playing the game on a physical level.  The Raiders need a lot, but I would think a defensive player makes sense given the lack of playmakers and talent beyond OLB Khalil Mack.
• Top Players and Traits:  Roquan Smith is the guy here, but the Raiders could go Ward at CB.  Another player to consider here is Washington’s Vita Vea a 6’4″ and 347 lbs. Defensive Tackle who can move to stop the run or pass.
• Possible Scenarios: My gut says the Raiders know exactly who they want given that Gruden is back.  Of course, if certain players like Edmunds or Fitzpatrick are still on the Board, then that may sway the pick.  However, I’ve heard Smith attached to the Raiders for weeks now.  Prediction:  Raiders will take Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

So, that is my Top 10 given our current climate.  What is your Top 10?  Who do you disagree with?  Is your team in the Top 10 and you want someone else they are talking about in your local media?  I’d love to hear your comments below.

Tomorrow, we will take on Picks 11-20.

Until tomorrow,

Wegs