I’m not going to pretend like I am a huge NBA fan.  I grew up in the MJ era being from Chicago, so I was spoiled for years.  Now, with Lebron dominating and the Warriors in the Finals every year, there seems to be less luster.  Plus, over the years, I have grown to love the college game more and more.  March Madness is something that cannot be replicated.  The passion, intrigue and style of play really match up with the way I like the game.  I still coach middle school boys, so the NBA works contrary to any teachings you do with that age group.

With that said, the best time to watch the NBA is now.  The way too long regular season (82 games) is over.  Now, the real season begins.  It is a 16 team tournament with all series being best of 7 games.  I’ll break down the Playoffs and then make some predictions based on the Wegs Pool Playoff Index.

The Teams

Eastern Conference:

  • 1 Seed – Toronto Raptors – great season for a team that perennially can’t get past Cleveland.  Maybe this is their year, led by the backcourt of Kyle Lowery and Demar Derozan
  • 2 Seed – Boston Celtics – Celts are a well coached team, but the early loss of Gordon Hayward and the late loss of Kyrie Irving make the Celts a potential early upset victim
  • 3 Seed – Philadelphia 76ers – The tanking for the future has finally yielded results.  After years of picking in the Top 3, the Sixers are really good.  “Rookie” Ben Simmons is a 6’11” swing man with all the versatility (just no jumper).  Joel Imbiid is the NBA’s most promising big man, but he is coming off an orbital fracture and will miss at least Game 1 of the 1st round.  This is a team to watch.
  • 4 Seed – Cleveland Cavaliers – Lebron James, that is all you have to know.  James is trying to take his team to a record 8th straight NBA Finals with an almost completely new cast of characters.
  • 5 Seed – Indiana Pacers – A young team led by guard, Victor Oladipo.  Oladipo has blossomed in Indiana and alongside big man Myles Turner, they should be a fun watch.
  • 6 Seed – Miami Heat – Does Dwayne Wade have one more run in him?  I don’t think so, but Hassan Whiteside has some length and Coach Erik Spoelstra is very under-rated.
  • 7 Seed – Milwaukee Bucks – Bucks are not great, but they have the game’s most interesting player, affectionately called, “The Greek Freak” – Giannis Antetokounmpo, a 6’11” guy who is as athletic as any guard with the length of a big man.  Worth watching this guy do his thing.
  • 8 Seed – Washington Wizards – The Wizards were really close to going to the Eastern Conference Finals last year, but the John Wall injury and inconsistent play have made them just squeak in.  Still, the talent on the roster cannot be denied.  Should be a tough out.

Western Conference:

  • 1 Seed – Houston Rockets – The James Harden show continues to play well with the NBA’s best record.  The super guard creates for all teammates and could win the MVP.  The question is if the other guys, including new arrival, Chris Paul, will have enough to get past the Champs.
  • 2 Seed – Golden State Warriors – The Ws are the best team in the league, but Steph Curry, their paradigm-shifting point guard, will miss the 1st series and may be limited in the 2nd.  Can Kevin Durant and company hold the fort for their guy to get back?
  • 3 Seed – Portland Trailblazers – Damian Lillard is the most under-rated NBA player, in my opinion.  Damian along with CJ McCollum, are another one of those dynamic duos, but I’m not sure they can go deep in the West.
  • 4 Seed – Oklahoma City Thunder – The experiment putting Carmelo Anthony, a career ball stopper, Paul George and the walking triple double, Russell Westbrook hasn’t really worked in the regular season.  However, they came together for this time of year.  Look for them to be a fun watch if they can get past Round 1.
  • 5 Seed – Utah Jazz – This is the surprise team of the year.  Rookie Donovan Mitchell has been a revelation, but this team also plays defense.  So, watch out for them to make some noise.
  • 6 Seed – New Orleans Pelicans – “The Brow,” Anthony Davis is back healthy, but can he do it all to take his team past the 1st Round?
  • 7 Seed – San Antonio Spurs – No Kawhi Leonard for the Spurs really hurt their title hopes, but power forward, Lamarcus Aldridge has had a career year, and Coach Popovich will not let his team go down easily.
  • 8 Seed – Minnesota Timberwolves – Coach Thibodeau has his young team in the playoffs for the first time in a while.  Small forward, Jimmy Butler is back from a knee injury, but I’m not sure he is 100%.  This may be just an experience run for the T-Wolves.

Playoff Index Methodology

The Playoff Index is simple take the following 5 categories:  Scoring Per Game, Points Against, Point Differential, Rebounding Percentage of Shots and Assist to Turnover Ratio.  Rank each of the 16 teams by these 5 categories.  Then, average the total number of ranks by the 5 categories to come up with the Index.  The lower the score, the better the team, in theory.  I’ve tried this with the NFL and it works wonders.  I’m not sure about the NBA given that stars win over teams more often than not.

Here are the results:

Seed   Team   Rank
E1       TOR      4
W2     GS         5.4
W1     Hou       5.8
E3      PHI        6.2
W7     SA          6.6
W5     UT          7.4
W4     OKC       8
E2      BOS        8.8
W3     POR       8.8
W8     MIN       8.8
W6     NO          9.8
E8      WAS        9.8
E5       IND        10.4
E4       CLE         11.2
E6       MIA         11.2
E7       MIL         12.2

A couple of quick observations:

  • 5 of the 8 Eastern Conference Teams come in at the bottom of the Index
  • Cleveland is tied for 2nd to last in the Index, so if Lebron takes this team to a title, he deserves praise
  • Toronto, not Houston or Golden State are the top of the Index

Here is how I use it.  I pit each match up against each other in the Index.  Let’s take Toronto (4.0) against Washington (9.8) – the difference of 5.8 is the largest advantage in the 1st round.  According to the Index, if Washington were to win, then that would be the greatest upset.

Round 1:

Eastern Conference:  Toronto (4.0) over Washington (9.8) – Boston (8.8) over Milwaukee (12.2) – Philadelphia (6.2) over Miami (11.2) – Cleveland (11.2) over Indiana (10.4) given it was close and Lebron premium

Western Conference:  Houston (5.8) over Minnesota (8.8) – Golden State (5.4) over San Antonio (6.6) barely without Curry – Portland (8.8) over New Orleans (9.8) very close – Oklahoma City (8.0) over Utah (7.4) another talent premium override here

 Round 2:  

Eastern Conference:  Toronto (4.0) over Cleveland (11.2) it has to happen sometime – Philadelphia (6.2) over Boston (8.8)

Western Conference:  Houston (5.8) over Oklahoma City (8.0) – Golden State (5.4) over Portland (8.8)

Conference Finals:

Eastern Conference:  Toronto (4.0) over Philadelphia (6.2)

Western Conference:  Golden State (5.4) over Houston (5.8) – pick ’em series

NBA Finals:

Toronto (4.0) over Golden State (5.4) – seems like a long shot, but I’ve followed the Index in all but 2 of the series.  Let’s see how it works.

Let the games begin.

Wegs

About the author

I'm a 49 year old, twice divorced guy with a 20 year old. The blog has morphed a bit lately. Not just sports or dating, social commentary and now some stories from my past experience.